Outline
Electric Load Forecasting II: Advanced Topics and Case Studies
The standard course outline is listed below. The course is being customized based on the background and needs of attendees. See THIS BLOG POST for my teaching method
Course Outline
Out of sample tests
Error analysis
Cross validation
Sliding simulation
Weather station selection
Two fundamental questions
A common method
Unconstrained weather station selection
Seven-step implementation
Outlier detection and data cleansing
Definitions of outlier
Three examples
Hidden outlier
A modeling approach to outlier detection and data cleansing
More about recency effect
How many lagged temperatures can we afford
“Optimal” combination of lagged and average temperatures
Recency effect in hierarchical load forecasting
Search algorithms for recency effect modeling
Combining forecasts
Motivation
Forecast combination methods
Practical considerations
Case studies (computer lab session)
Cross validation
Weather station selection
Outlier detection and data cleansing
Recency effect modeling
Forecast combination
Emerging topics (optional)
ARIMA models for electric load forecasting
Grouping and clustering methods
Hierarchical load forecasting
Probabilistic electric load forecasting
Retail energy forecasting
Other emerging topics