Long Term Load Forecasting - Outline

Long Term Load Forecasting

The standard course outline is listed below. The course is being customized based on the background and needs of attendees. See THIS BLOG POST for my teaching method.

Course Outline


  • Utility applications

  • How much is 1% error?

  • Principles of forecasting

  • Load forecasting terminologies

  • Techniques for long term load forecasting

Classical methods

  • The magic ruler

  • Regression models with monthly or daily data

  • S-curve for spatial load forecasting

  • End use studies

A statistical approach

  • Golden insights from hourly data

  • Piecewise or polynomial functions

  • A large but small model

  • It's economists' fault

Probabilistic load forecasting

  • Forecasting methods

  • Evaluation methods

  • A series of case studies

  • A crowd-sourcing approach

Challenges and solutions

  • Data, data, data

  • Weather station selection

  • Forecast reconciliation: when science meets reality

Emerging topics

  • Distributed generation

  • Energy efficiency and demand response

  • Electric vehicles

  • Forecast override, override what, and how?

(Computer lab session based on MS Excel, MATLAB, R or SAS)

Load forecasting in MS Excel

  • Software tools and solutions

  • Spreadsheet based forecasting: five approaches

  • Understanding the limitations

  • Building load forecasting models